Given the rapid advances in AI capability and market trends, experts indicate that frontier AI is poised to drive one of the most consequential technology shifts in recent history.
In April, the AI Office held the first meeting of the Expert Forum on Frontier AI (full list of members (PDF)) to discuss the opportunities that frontier AI can bring Europe, assessing underlying AI trajectories and the EU’s strategic position. The meeting allowed experts to outline recommendations for strategic actions on how to build European frontier AI capabilities and how to strengthen Europe’s ability to access, choose, control and benefit from any frontier AI model. Experts also provided guidance on how actions by the European Commission or Member States can match the speed and scale of this technology.
In the report, the AI Office highlights key insights from the meeting and related written expert statements as the EU continues its drive to become an AI continent.
Key insights
A decisive moment for strategic action
According to the experts, frontier AI capabilities have advanced at an unprecedented pace, moving within roughly three years from struggling with basic tasks to approaching the limits of what current tests can measure. The scale of market trends has followed rapidly, while Europe’s position remains comparatively modest relative to the EU's economic weight.
While the EU produces world-class research and trains a significant share of global AI talent, frontier AI development is concentrated largely outside the EU. European computing infrastructure and growth-stage capital are not yet at the scale that frontier AI requires.
Experts have welcomed the EU's commitment to enhancing competitiveness, sovereignty, and security in frontier AI. They also cautioned that the next one to two years could be decisive for Europe to move to a position of strength.
Building frontier capabilities through attractive market conditions
Frontier AI development is driven globally by private investment, experts underlined. A credible path to building frontier capabilities in Europe depends first on removing structural barriers to attractive market conditions. Computing infrastructure, and the energy to power it, were described as the most urgent two-year priorities. Barriers to growth-stage capital, legal certainty around training data in copyright and data protection, as well as talent attraction and retention should be addressed.
Some recommended complementing this by selectively backing high-risk, high-return bets where Europe could take a leading role, spanning the current paradigm, alternative approaches and other layers of the AI stack.
Securing access to the frontier in a strong position with trusted partners
Frontier AI development is currently concentrated overseas and non-frontier models are an imperfect substitute for those. Experts emphasised that the EU must nonetheless strengthen its sovereign ability to access, select, control, and benefit from frontier AI models.
This warrants a clear assessment of Europe's current and potential leverage across the AI stack, coupled with a strategy to protect, strengthen, and effectively deploy those assets. Experts pointed at substantial leverage Europe can derive from assets such as its market size, regulatory strength, industrial base and leadership in parts of the AI stack.
Collaboration with trusted partners facing similar constraints was identified as a strategic opportunity to amplify both capabilities and leverage.
Acting at the speed and scale of the technology
Experts widely welcomed the AI Office’s recognition that strategic action must match the speed and scale of frontier AI, recommending setting ambitious targets for 2030. Experts stressed that delivering on this requires frontier AI to become a political priority, with the necessary capacity and structures, within and across institutions, to follow through.
Next steps
The AI Office will group the recommendations for strategic actions by priority and work with others to implement them, facilitating further expert exchanges in the Expert Forum, including through written input and targeted workshops.
Updates on strategic actions and the Frontier AI Initiative and insights from the Expert Forum, will be published.
Background
Following a call for expressions of interest, the Expert Forum brought together experts from European AI developers, industry and investors, technical research, academia and think tanks, alongside representatives from Member States and Commission.
The Forum informs the European Frontier AI Initiative, which was announced in the Apply AI Strategy to foster EU competitiveness, sovereignty and security in frontier AI. The report is not exhaustive and does not reflect the official position of the Commission.
Read more about: European research development and deployment of AI